If you’re like me, you’re tired of the same old tune about Biden’s age, the looming Trumpocalypse and the end of democracy as we know it. So, let’s try something different. I want to get us talking about the stakes, why we’re gonna win and how we’re gonna do it. Yeah, a dose of that ephemeral optimism we haven’t seen since Obama.
Sure, a second Trump term is possible, but not inevitable. We have the power to shape the world we want to see for ourselves and our kiddos. Admittedly, we’re up against a formidable tide that’s not exactly aligned with our ideals, but it’s time to get in the game, navigate the insane politics of the vote, and rally our squads for the epic showdown ahead.
If you’re still with me, you likely understand the importance of a Democratic Congress and President in 2024 to ensure the preservation of women’s reproductive and LGBTQIA+ rights, reinforce laws that champion democratic ideals, and steer clear of the autocracy storm headed our way.
The Stakes
Biden’s not predicted to win.
In the U.S., the Electoral College selects our President and Vice President. Each state gets a certain number of electoral votes based on its Senators and Representatives. Most states use a "winner-takes-all" system (except Maine and Nebraska which split their electoral votes), so if you win a state, you get all its electoral votes.
There are 538 electoral votes in total, and you need 270 to be the big boss. Here’s the way it historically breaks down:
The system leans Republican. Smaller states, which often swing Republican, get more say per voter than bigger states. Biden narrowly won In 2020, with some traditionally GOP states flipping to Biden (GA, MI, NV), while others gained “Battleground State” status due to tight races (AZ, CO, FL, IA, MN, NH, NC, OH, PA, TX, VA, WI).
Where does the Electoral College stand today?
In the initial electoral college prediction (CNN.com), Trump has 28 states either solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction, totalling 272 electoral votes - a win. Biden has 19 states plus DC either solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction, totalling 225 electoral votes - 45 votes short.
Is it time to panic? Not yet. National polls may get constant attention, but the real battleground is at the state level. Shifting issues, influenced by media cycles, such as the economy, immigration, civil liberties, Trump's legal battles, Biden's decisions in Ukraine and Israel, and abortion, will drive voter motivation in the state-by-state contests.
So much will happen between now and November 5, but for sure, this race is going to be tight and there’s work to be done to mobilize every single vote.